少将：俄其实想与中国结盟 但可能带来严重后果

编者按：俄罗斯总统普京20日开始访华，这是他在乌克兰危机发生后首次出国访问，并出现在多边国际舞台。同一天，中俄海军在东海北部海域举行联合军演。那么，中俄军演是否有警示性回应美日同盟的意味？普京此次访华具有怎样的含义？日前，围绕“普京访华”的系列问题，环球网评论频道专访了我国驻俄罗斯前国防武官、中国中俄关系史研究会副会长王海运少将。

　　——专访王海运少将系列之二

　　没必要把中俄东海军演与钓鱼岛直接挂钩

　　环球网：中俄“海上联合—2014”军事演习首次选在东海钓鱼岛西北海域，有对美日的警示性回应的意义吗？

　　王海运：从国际战略层面来看，确实有回应美日军事同盟的意味，因为中俄加强军事合作，显然是我们即使不讲，也是有针对性的。这是不言而喻的。另一方面，又不能直接说是有些学者所说的，对奥巴马访问亚洲四国的警示性回应，这说法牵强附会。因为一次演习不是简单的事情，这是起码半年多之前就定下来的，那时还无法预见奥巴马访问亚洲会发表什么言论，也没必要与钓鱼岛直接挂钩，离争议区域还远。中俄两国军演主要是应达到相互了解、相互学习、相互借鉴的目的，同时演练遇到一系列安全问题时如何协同动作。

　　中日岛争，俄还不愿付出“站在中国一边”的代价

　　环球网：俄对待中日冲突到底是何态度？

　　王海运：俄对日政策，我感觉总体上是稳定局势、加强合作，以平衡美国的影响。考虑没考虑中国利益？不能说完全没考虑，因为它对日也会回避相关问题，比如钓鱼岛问题，日本极力争取俄支持，但俄不支持。至于说为什么不能公开站在中国一边？俄罗斯从自己角度考虑，不愿付出这个代价。俄对日寄比较大的希望在哪里？第一，日本是个发达国家，俄希望日本资金能来俄投资，第二，日本是个能源市场，而且也能承受较高价格，俄希望油气能够卖到日本，一方面能更多盈利，另一方面避免对中国市场产生过大依赖。与其说这是俄自私的考虑，不如说是国家利益优先的考虑。

　　我反对中俄现在结盟，但要为将来的结盟需要创造条件

　　环球网：您怎么评论普京最近明确提出的“中俄不结盟”？

　　王海运：第一，“三不”，即“不结盟，不对抗，不针对第三国”是中国长期坚持的外交方针，现在也没改变，为了减少和平崛起的阻力和反弹，是需要这样做的。

　　其实，俄罗斯有结盟思维，但中国长期坚持不结盟，俄也就逐渐放低了姿态，我能感受到这一点。我在俄接触到高官，能感受到他们很期待与中国结成同盟关系，他们认为，只要中俄在世界上联起手来，我们什么也不怕。这是他们一个重大的战略判断。所以，普京“不结盟”的说法与我国长期坚持的战略方针直接相关。

　　第二，从现在看来，我们要结盟也不具备条件，而且可能带来严重后果。因为现在同俄结盟，只能结成一个“弱势联盟”，会使世界形成新的两极结构——中、俄，再拉上几个小兄弟，构成一极;美国、西方同盟构成另一极。那么，在国际格局现在主要由西方主导的情况下，对中俄的和平发展就会更加不利。

　　所以，显然不能盲目提结盟，即使要结盟，也是逐渐培育的过程。没有朋友，哪有盟友？我们现在有朋友，但在关键时刻能够真心实意出手相助的朋友太少了。我们需要朋友，不能成为孤独的大国。这就是第三个问题了。

　　第三，结盟不结盟是策略，而不是战略。把“不结盟”当作战略看待，不能触动，甚至不能讨论，这就错了。我们历史上有多次结盟，中俄之前曾经三次结盟：孙中山搞过结盟，蒋介石搞过结盟，中苏搞过同盟。所以不能将其看作一成不变的东西。

　　现在，美国这么强大，仍然拉帮结伙，美国很宝贵的经验，就是联盟体系。美国并不单打独斗，我们为什么要单打独斗？再换一个角度，“统一战线”是中国共产党的宝贵历史经验，这个经验在当今世界不适用吗？为什么不能重新坚持这个法宝？“国际统一战线”是完全必要的，也就是说，准盟友关系是完全必要的。我现在就主张准盟友关系，我反对中俄现在结盟，但要为将来的结盟需要创造条件。

　　“不结盟”还有一个问题是“战略协作关系”的问题。1996年，叶利钦访华和江泽民主席定下来了“战略协作关系”这个词。这是怎么提出来的呢？原来我们说的是“战略合作伙伴关系”。叶利钦在来中国的路上，在飞机上改成了“协作”，马上征求中方意见，中方在几个小时内答复同意。“协作”在俄语里的意思是“协同动作”，是个军用词，即按照时间、地点、方向、任务，协调一致采取行动。不只是在同一问题上保持同一基调，而且还要保持协调行动。大体跟中国所说的“互动”可能更相近一些，你动我也得动。所以，“中俄全面战略协作伙伴关系”实际就是准盟友关系。相互不承担严格的条约义务，不搞军事联盟，但在一系列战略问题上可以联起手来。从这个层面讲，中俄是有准同盟性质的。只是我们这个内涵还没完全实现。

　　现在不主张调整这个战略框架。中俄战略协作伙伴关系已经够用了，而且还比较准确，双方在合作的同时还保持了相对独立性和主动性，我们长时间内可以在这个框架下做很多事情。现在的问题是，我们还没有实现中俄战略协作伙伴关系应有的内涵，所以我们还需要再加把劲。

　　中国现在面临的问题是面对美国的战略围堵时，需要一个和平稳定发展环境。俄罗斯是要实现国家的复兴、重新崛起，现在它要大力发展自己。所以，中俄对和平稳定发展环境的要求是一致的。我们应在关系到国际关系、周边战略等重大问题上联手合作，共同稳定周边，共同应付发生的一些热点问题。

　　俄转向亚太对我们总体是好事，是对美国“再平衡”的一种平衡

　　环球网：俄在亚太的政策是怎样的？

　　王海运：俄罗斯面临着转向亚太的问题。俄罗斯对成为亚太大国的积极性是很高的。亚太从世界经济中心也必然成为世界政治中心、安全中心，更不要说亚太地区大国云集。到现在还没有形成一种集体安全机制。实际上，各个地区之中，只有东北亚到现在没有一个集体安全机制。这个地区的安全上的危险性依然存在。俄罗斯必然需要在军事力量上转向亚太，至于它为什么要加强太平洋舰队的力量建设，也是因为这个。同中国的军事技术合作、联合军演，俄也有这方面目的。

　　俄提出亚太战略、面向东方，是这几年在积极引导的东西，原因有几点：第一，俄需要充分利用亚洲成为世界经济发展中心这样的机遇来发展自己;第二，俄东部地区的开发需要借助亚太尤其是中国的力量。俄东部地区如此广大、资源如此丰富，但不能充分利用，对俄发展确实是个大问题。1956年俄罗斯提出东部地区战略，但一直落不到实处。现在俄罗斯政府成立了远东部、远东发展公司，大量投入，准备大干一番。远东开发靠谁？单靠从欧洲调集力量吗？资金呢？技术呢？与中国的合作是必然的。在劳动力上，它现在对中国限制，但双方恐怕早晚要在这个问题上加强磋商。

　　俄转向亚太，对我们来说总体是好事。俄罗斯力量也是对美国“再平衡”的一种平衡，能缓解我们的压力，也可以说是对美国重返亚太的对抗。一个实力强大、有一定作为的大国，在战略理念、战略利益一致的基础上转向亚太，对于我们应对美日同盟带来的挑战肯定是好事。因为俄罗斯也面临着美日同盟的威胁，美日同盟现在指向中国，枪口调转30度、50度，就转向俄罗斯了。

　　如果长期让对俄关系服从对美关系，那就错了

　　环球网：中国该如何处理“中俄美”三角关系？

　　王海运：中国跟美国的关系很重要，美国是我们的主要战略对手、经贸伙伴，美国对我们和平崛起的国际环境影响最大、最直接、最长远。但对美关系跟对俄关系不能形成对比。

　　我们长时间把对美关系当成重中之重，我认为对俄关系也是重中之重。如果长期让对俄关系服从对美关系，那就错了。如果这样影响到我们的对俄关系，美国会对我们更加肆无忌惮。

　　现在，我们对美国敢于斗争，又追求和平，提出了新型大国关系。新型大国关系这几条要做到真不容易——“不对抗，不冲突”，美国能接受，但事实上却做不到，美国是中国周边麻烦的主要制造者;“相互尊重”它更做不到，美国不可能承认你跟它平起平坐的地位，让美国特别尊重中国的核心利益，尊重中国的社会制度、意识形态，它更做不到;“互利共赢”，只能说目前为止能做到。所以我们在运筹“中俄美”关系上一定要清醒。

　　我们有些人不愿意承认中俄美是种大三角关系，用三边关系取代三角关系的提法。我认为可以用三边关系来形容中俄美，但三国确实存在三角关系的性质。这种性质跟冷战时期很大程度上是相似的，所以运筹中俄美关系对我们来说非常重要。怎样运筹，对我们是个考验。我们的大三角关系应该与美俄两国距离都最近，而美俄两国距离最远，如果说是个等腰三角形的话，我们应该是顶点。

我们一方面好好利用对美关系，争取稳定对美关系，另一方面，对俄关系要下大功夫经营。中国从春秋战国时期的合纵连横，到三国时期的蜀吴抗曹，都可以借鉴。蜀国和吴国矛盾那么深，都可以联合起来对付曹操，我们同俄罗斯的矛盾到那么深了吗？现在有些人在乌问题上大骂俄罗斯，力挺美国，实在愚蠢，不知道国家利益在哪里。

20th editor's note: Russian President vladimir putin's visit to China, this is his first visit abroad in Ukraine after the crisis, and appeared in the multilateral international stage. On the same day, north sea in the east China sea between China and Russia navy held a joint military exercise. Sino-russian military exercise, then, is there a warning in response to the u.s.-japan alliance means? Mr Putin's visit to China has the meaning of what? Recently, centered around the series of "putin's visit, the web comments channel, an interview with the former Chinese ambassador to Russia defense attache, vice President of Chinese society for the study of relations between China and Russia Wang Haiyun major general.

- interview Wang Haiyun major-general series # 2

There's no need to make the east China sea between China and Russia directly contacted with the exercises and the diaoyu islands

The web: "joint - 2014" military exercise between China and Russia for the first time, choose the diaoyu islands in the east China www.cdsycg.com sea northwest area, have the meaning of warning response to Japan?

Wang Haiyun: from the international strategic level, do have to respond to America's military alliance with Japan, because to strengthen military cooperation between China and Russia, apparently we even don't speak, is also targeted. It is self-evident. And can not directly say, on the other hand, some scholars say, warning response to Mr Obama's trip to Asian countries, it is far-fetched. Because an exercise is not a simple thing, this is at least six months before they decided, then it is impossible to foresee Mr Obama's trip to Asia will what comments, don't have to directly with the diaoyu islands, far way from the disputed area. Military drills between China and Russia is mainly should reach the purpose of mutual understanding, mutual learning and mutual reference, drill a series of safety problems at the same time how to concerted action.

Island dispute between China and Japan, and Russia also reluctant to pay "on China's side" price

The web: Russia treat sino-japanese conflict what attitude?

Wang Haiyun: Russia's policy to Japan, I feel is stable overall situation, strengthening cooperation, to balance the influence of the United States. Consider not consider China's interests? Can't say no, because it is against Japan can also avoid related issues, such as the diaoyu islands, Japan has for Russia, but Russia is not supported. As for why can't open on China's side? Russia from their own point of view, do not wish to pay the price. Russia to send larger hope in where? First, Japan is a developed country, Russia hope Japan funds to invest in Russia, and second, Japan is an energy market, but also to withstand higher prices, the hope can sell to Japan of oil and gas, on the one hand, can be more profitable, on the other hand to avoid excessive dependence on the Chinese market. This is not so much the selfish considerations as priority consideration of national interests.

I am opposed to now alliance between China and Russia, but to create conditions for the alignment of the future need

The web: how do you comment on Mr Putin recently clearly put forward the "non-aligned" between China and Russia?

Wang Haiyun: first, the "three-no", namely "non-aligned, don't fight, not for a third country" is China's long-standing foreign policy, now also didn't change, in order to reduce the resistance and rebound peaceful rise, is needed to do this.

In fact, Russia has allied thinking, but China's long-term adherence to the non-aligned, Russia is also gradually lowered the posture, I can feel it. In the access to the top, I can feel they are looking forward to form alliances with China, they think that as long as China and Russia in the world's top allied hands, we are not afraid of anything. This is a big strategic judgment. So, Mr Putin "non-aligned" is directly related with long-term adherence to the strategy in our country.

Ally in the second place, from now, we have to also do not have conditions, and may have serious consequences. Because now ally with Russia, can only form a "weak alliance", make the world into a new poles structure - China, Russia, pulled a few little brother again, constitute a pole; Another very the United States and western Allies. So, in the international pattern is now mainly dominated by the west, the peaceful development of China and Russia will be more adverse.

So, obviously can not blindly alliance, even to an alliance, and also the process of cultivating. Without a friend, which have Allies? We now have a friend, but at a crucial moment can genuinely help friends too few. We need to friend, cannot be lonely superpower. This is the third question.

Third, the alliance alliance is strategy, rather than strategic. The "non-aligned" as a strategic view, can't touch, can't even discuss, this is wrong. In our history have repeatedly, once three times before the china-russia alliance: sun yat-sen made an alliance, Chiang kai-shek made an alliance, the sino-soviet made alliance. So you can't see it as a constant.

Now, the United States so strong, still take a very valuable experience in the United States, is the alliance system. The United States is not fight alone, why should we fight alone? To change a perspective, the "united front" is a precious historical experience of the communist party of China, the experience do not apply in today's world? Why not to insist on this? "International united front" is necessary, that is to say, the quasi alliance is necessary. I now that alliance, I am opposed to now alliance between China and Russia, but to create conditions for the alignment of the future need.

"Non-aligned" another problem is the problem of the strategic cooperative relationship. In 1996, yeltsin's visit to China and President jiang zemin settled the word "strategic cooperation". This is how to bring up? Originally we said is a "strategic partnership". Boris yeltsin on the way to come to China, changed to "collaboration", on the plane immediately opinions from China, China in a few hours reply to agree. "Collaboration" in Russian means "concerted action", is a military term, namely, in accordance with the time, place, direction, task, coordinated action. Keep the same tone, not just in the same issue but also to keep the coordinated action. Generally with the Chinese call "interaction" may be more similar, you I have to move. So, the "comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Russia" actually is quasi alliance. Each other does not undertake strict treaty obligations, no military alliance, but can be combined on a series of strategic issues. Tell from this level, China and Russia is a quasi nature of the alliance. But we haven't fully realized the connotation.

Now don't adjust the strategic framework. China-russia strategic partnership of coordination has had enough schooling, but also more accurate, the two sides in the cooperation while maintaining the relative independence and initiative, a long time we can do a lot of things under this framework. The question now is, we have not yet realize the connotation of china-russia strategic partnership of coordination is due, so we still need to work harder.

China is facing the United States are now facing the problem of strategic containment, needs a peaceful and stable development of the environment. Russia is to realize the revival and rise again, now it is going to www.jnhshr.com develop themselves. So, China and Russia to peace and stability requirements of the development environment is the same. We should be in relation to the international relations, the strategy on such major issues surrounding the joint cooperation, mutual stability, to deal with some of the hot issues.

Russia's turn to the asia-pacific overall is a good thing for us, to the United States is a balance of "rebalancing"

The web: what is the Russian policy in the asia-pacific?

Facing to the problem of the asia-pacific Wang Haiyun: Russia. Russia to become the superpower's enthusiasm is very high. Asia-pacific from the world economic center will also become the world's political center, security center, not to mention the great powers in the asia-pacific region. Have yet to form a collective security mechanism. In fact, each region, only in northeast Asia to now none of the collective security mechanism. The safety risk in this area is still there. Russia will need on the military power to the asia-pacific, as to why it should strengthen the construction of the power of the Pacific fleet, but also for this. Military technical cooperation, joint military exercise, with China and Russia have this purpose.

Russia's asia-pacific strategy, facing the east, is this a few years in actively guide, because there are a few points: first, the need to make full use of the centre for Asia to become the world's economic development so that opportunities to develop themselves; Second, the eastern development needs with the power of the asia-pacific, especially China. Eastern Russia is so big, so rich resources, but cannot make full use of, development of Russia is a big problem. In eastern Russia 1956 strategy, but has been less than reality. Now the Russian government founded the far east, far east development company, a large number of inputs, ready to go for. The far east development by who? Assemble power from Europe alone? Money? Technology? Cooperation with China is inevitable. On the labor force, it is now restricted to China, but the two sides should strengthen consultations on this issue in the morning and evening, I'm afraid.

Russia's turn to the asia-pacific, overall is a good thing for us. Russia's strength is also a balance of "rebalancing" in the United States, can relieve our pressure, also can saying is to fight the United States to return to the asia-pacific. A powerful, have certain as power, on the basis of the strategic concept, strategic interests toward the asia-pacific, for us to deal with challenges of the us-japan alliance must be good. Because Russia is faced with the threat of the us-japan alliance, the us-japan alliance now point to the Chinese, the muzzle turned 30, 50 degrees, went to Russia.

If long-term relations with Russia to obey to relations with America, it would be wrong

The web: China how to deal with "beauty" between China and Russia triangle?

Wang Haiyun: it is very important to China's relationship with the United States, the United States is a major strategic rivals, our economic and trade partner, the largest international environmental impact of our peaceful rise and the most direct, the most in the long run. But relations with America and relations with Russia can't contrast.

We long for relations with America as a top priority, I believe that relations with Russia is top priority. If long-term relations with Russia to obey to relations with America, it would be wrong. If this affect our relations with Russia, the United States is more ready for us.

Now, we dare to struggle against the United States, and the pursuit of peace, put forward the new type of power relations. This article a few new the relations between big powers to do is not easy, "not confrontation, conflict," the United States to accept, but can't do that, in fact the United States is China's main surrounding trouble maker; "Mutual respect" it can't do that, the United States will not admit you with equal status, let us special respect China's core interests, respect China's social system, ideology, more can't do it; "Mutual benefit", can only say that so far can do it. So we on the strategy "beauty" between China and Russia relations must be awake.

Some of us are reluctant to admit that beauty is a kind of triangle relation between China and Russia, with a trilateral relationship instead of the triangle. I think you can use the trilateral relations to describe between China and the United States, but in The Three Kingdoms is indeed the nature of the triangle. This nature with the cold war to a large extent is similar, so management relations between China and Russia is very important to us. How to operate, is a test for us. We should triangle relations with Russia and the United States recently, distance, and the United States and Russia furthest distance between the two countries, if a isosceles triangle, we should be a vertex.

We use the relations on one hand, relationship to the United States for stability, on the other hand, relations with Russia to operate of kung fu. China from the spring and autumn period and the warring states period of the nation, to The Three Kingdoms period of shu wu fight cao, can draw lessons from. Shu and wu contradictions so deep, can be combined to deal with cao cao, we'll conflict with Russia in so deep? Now some people are cursed on Russia, behind the United States, really stupid, don't know where is the national interests.

少将：俄其实想与中国结盟 但可能带来严重后果