市盈率对股票市场成交量的影响
发布时间:2021-03-05
本科毕业论文(设计)题 目 市盈率对股票市场成交量的影响 ——以沪市A股为例
学 院 经济管理学院 专 业 金融学 年 级 2006级 学 号2020 姓 名 吴宣伶 指 导 教 师 王定祥 副教授 成 绩
目 录
摘要 ......................................................... 2 Abstract ..................................................... 2 引言 ......................................................... 3 1股票市场市盈率对股票成交额的理论分析 ........................ 3 2XXA股市场实证研究分析 ....................................... 5 2.1数据说明 ............................................... 5 2.2实证分析方法说明 ....................................... 6 2.3实证运行结果分析 ....................................... 6 2.3.1单位根检验 ......................................... 7 2.3.2协整检验 ........................................... 7 2.3.3建立误差修正模型 ................................... 8 2.3.4脉冲响应分析 ................................... …..11 3结论与政策含义……………………………………………………………..13 参考文献 .....................................................15 致谢
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市盈率对股票市场成交量的影响
——以沪市A股为例
吴宣伶
西南大学经济管理学院,XX 400715
摘要:本文基于中国A股市场的数据,分析了市盈率、股票平均价格以及货币供应量对股票成交额的影响。研究结论是:在长期,市盈率对股票成交量的影响具有负向作用关系,而股票平均价格和货币供应量对股票成交量的影响呈现正向作用关系。市盈率与成交量的负向关系说明我国的市盈率并没有处于正常X围之内,而股票平均价格和货币供应量与成交量的长期关系符合经济原理,说明我国货币政策有效影响我国股票市场。在短期,市盈率对股票成交量仍然具有负向作用关系,股票平均价格呈现正向作用关系,但货币供应量呈现负向作用关系,这说明我国货币政策在实施过程中存在明显的时滞问题。
关键词:沪市A股;市盈率;股票平均价格;货币供应量;成交量
The Impact of Price-earning Ratio to Volume in the Stock Market Shanghai Stock Market as an Example Wu Xuanling College of Economics and Management, SouthwestUniversity, Chongqing 400175, China
Abstract:This paper is a empirical research which based on the data of the Chinese A-share market analysed theimpact of the price-earnings ratio, average price of the stock market and money supply . the conclusions are: In the long term, price-earnings ratio and volume have a negative relationship,but average price of the stock and money supplyshow a positive relationship. the negative relationship betweenPrice-earnings ratio and the volume illuminates that China’s price-earnings ratio is not in the normal range; the long-term relationship of the average price of the stock marketand money supply and volume is according with economic principles, and it illuminates China’s monetary policy has an effective impact on China’s stock market. In the short term, price-earnings ratio and stock volumestill have a negative relationship, and it has a positive relationship ofthe average price of the stock, however, it has a negative relationship of money supply, so it shows that China’s monetary policy has time-lag problem in the implementation process. Key words:A-shares of Shanghai Stock Market; price-earnings ratio; average price of the stock market; money supply; volume
引言
1934年,本杰明格雷厄姆第一次使用了“市盈率”这一概念,此后,市盈率在各国都被广泛的用作股票技术分析的主要参考指标之一,在发达国家成熟的债券市场中,其作用尤为突出,Oustephen&Penman(1989)对市盈率和未来投资收益的关系进行了探讨,其结论是市盈率对收益的预测呈负相关,Beaver&Morse(1978)探讨了股票市场价格风险与市盈率的关系。近年来,市盈率的高低也成为了我国股市和经济研究中的一个热点问题,许多国内学者就我国股票市场的各项指标关系作了研究。罗茜、陶亚民(2009)就市盈率对股市泡沫破裂的预警作用进行了分析;X雪莹、奇立波