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发布时间：1714409040
DigestOfThe.Economist.2006(2-3
Movingmarkets
Shiftsintradingpatternsaremakingtechnologyevermoreimportant
ANINVESTORpressesabutton,sending1,000small“buy”orderstoastockexchange.Theexchange'scomputersysteminstantlykicksin,butasplitsecondlater,99%oftheordersarecancelled.Havingfoundthebestprice,theinvestormakeshistradediscreetly,leavingnovisibletraceonthemarket—allinlesstimethanittakestoblink.Hisstealthstrategyremainsintact.
Eventslikethishappenmanytimesaday,asfloodsofordersfromactivehedgefundsand“algorithmic”traders—whouseautomatedprogramstobuyandsell—rushthroughthe
information-technologysystemsoftheworld'sexchanges.Theaveragetransactionsizeonleadingstockexchangeshasfallenfromabout2,000sharesinthemid-1990stofewerthan400today,althoughtotaltradingvolumehassoared.Butexchanges'systemshavetocopewithmorethanjustagrowingonslaughtof“buy”and“sell”messages.Customerswanttotradeinmorecomplicatedways,combiningdifferenttypesofassetsondifferentexchangesatonce.Then,asalways,thereisregulation.Allthisispushingtechnologyfurthertothefore.
RecentembarrassmentsattheTokyoStockExchangehaveillustratedwhatcanhappenwhensystemsfailtokeepupwiththetimes.Injustthepastfewmonths,theimportanceoftechnologyhasbeenplaininmergers(thoseoftheNewYorkStockExchangeandArchipelago,andNASDAQandINET;collaborations(thedecisionbytheNewYorkBoardofTradetousetheChicagoBoardofTrade'stradingplatform;andthecreationofoff-exchangetradingnetworks(includingoneunveiledrecentlybyCitigroup.
Technologyishardlyanewelementinfinancialmarkets:theadventofelectronictradinginthe
1980s(firstinEurope,laterinAmericahelpedtoglobalisefinancialmarketsanddroveuptradingvolumes.Buthavingslowedafterthedotcombubbleitisnowdemandingevermoreofexchanges'andintermediaries'attention.Investorscannowdealmoreeasilywithexchangesoreachother,bypassingtraditionalroutes.Ascustomers'demandsandbargainingpowerhaveincreased,sotheexchangeshavehadtorampuptheirownsystems.“Technologycreatedthemonsterthathastobeaddressedbymoretechnology,”saysLeslieSutphenofCalyonFinancial,abigfuturesbroker.
AiteGroup,aresearchfirm,reckonsthatinAmericaalonethesecuritiesandinvestmentindustryspent$26.4billionlastyearonIT(seechart,andmayspend$30billionin2008.Sell-sidefirmsspendmost:J.P.MorganChaseandMorganStanleyeachsplashedoutmorethan$2billionin2004,whileasset-managementfirmssuchasStateStreetGlobalAdvisors,BarclaysGlobalInvestorsandFidelityInvestmentsspentbetween$250mand$350mapiece.Withbrokeragefeesfortradeswhittleddown,manyhaveconcludedthatbettertechnologyisonewaytocuttradingcostsandkeepcustomers.
Testingallengines
Globalgrowthislookinglesslopsidedthanformanyyears
LARRYSUMMERS,aTreasurysecretaryunderBillClinton,oncesaidthat“theworldeconomyisflyingononeengine”todescribeitsexcessiverelianceonAmericandemand.Nowgrowthseemstobebecomingmoreevenatlast:EuropeandJapanarerevvingup,asaremostemergingeconomies.Asaresult,if(orwhentheAmericanenginestalls,theglobalaeroplanewillnotnecessarilycrash.
Forthetimebeing,America'smonetarypolicymakersthinkthattheireconomyisstillrunningprettywell.Thisweek,asAlanGreenspanhandedoverthechairmanshipoftheFederalReservetoBenBernanke,theFedmarkedtheendofMrGreenspan's18-yearreignbyraisinginterestratesforthe14thconsecutivemeeting,to4.5%.ThecentralbankersalsogaveMrBernankemoreflexibilitybysofteningtheirpolicystatement:theysaidthatfurthertightening“maybeneeded”ratherthan“islikelytobe
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