Tough times could get tougher for Hong Kong's luxury retailers

大陆游客减少赴港购物 香港零售商受挫

Tough times could get tougher for Hong Kong's luxury retailers.

香港奢侈品零售商的日子可能会难上加难。

The financial center and shopping Mecca reported May retail sales fell 4.1% from a year earlier, and many point the finger at mainland Chinese tourists. It's the fourth straight month of declines, after an uninterrupted streak of growth since the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2009. One could see false hope that the decline was less severe in May than the month before. It's likely to get worse.

作为金融中心和购物天堂，香港5月份零售额较上年同期下降了4.1%，许多人将原因归于中国大陆游客。这是香港零售额连续第四个月下滑，此前，2009年全球金融危机余波后香港零售额曾持续增长。5月份零售额降幅低于4月份，这或许会给人们一种虚假的希望，而实际上香港的零售业状况可能会进一步恶化。

A series of confrontations in recent months between mainlanders and Hong Kong residents received wide media attention in China. Many Hong Kong residents view the crowds of shopping mainlanders as uncouth and resent their presence as a sign of Beijing's growing influence on the self-governing city's affairs.

近月来，大陆游客与香港市民之间发生的一系列冲突受到中国媒体的广泛关注。许多香港市民认为赴港购物的大陆游客素质低，而且认为他们的到来是北京对香港事务影响力越来越大的一种迹象，并因此而感到厌恶。

On Tuesday, Hongkongers upset with Beijing marked the anniversary of the territory's handover from British control with the biggest pro-democracy demonstrations in a decade.

周二，对北京不满的香港人在香港回归周年纪念日这天举行了十年来规模最大的一次亲民主示威游行。

In fact, mainlanders aren't staying away--yet. They are just spending less. For the month of May as a whole arrivals from China continued to rise, albeit at a slowed-down pace of 13%, compared with 21% growth in May of 2013. This is partly driven by the ongoing corruption crackdown in China that has made ostentatious displays of wealth and bribery disguised as gift giving lose favor. Sales of 'jewelry, watches, clocks and valuable gifts' fell by 24.5% from a year earlier in May.

事实上，大陆游客并未离开香港，他们只是减少了在港支出。5月份到港大陆游客数量继续上升，只是升幅由上年同期的21%放缓至13%。造成这一现象的部分原因是，中国当前的反腐运动使得浮夸的炫富和送礼贿赂行为得到遏制。5月份，香港的珠宝、手表、时钟和贵重礼品的销售额较上年同期下降24.5%。

Yet an outright decline in Chinese tourists could yet be in the cards. In a bow to public opinion, Hong Kong is considering measures to restrict the number of tourist arrivals by up to 20%. Barclays estimates such a reduction could cut 2014 earnings by 18% at cosmetics retailer Sa Sa International, by 9% and 16% respectively at jewelry merchants Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook, and by 19% at Trinity Limited, owner of clothing-store brands Kent &Curwen and Cerruti 1881.

不过，赴港大陆游客数量仍有可能出现大幅下滑。迫于民意压力，香港正考虑采取措施将赴港游客数量削减至多20%。巴克莱(Barclays)预计，受这一举措影响，化妆品零售商莎莎国际(Sa Sa International) 2014年利润或下降18%，珠宝专卖店周大福(Chow Tai Fook)和六福集团(Luk Fook)的利润或分别下降9%和16%，服装品牌肯迪文(Kent &Curwen)和切瑞蒂1881 (Cerruti 1881)的所有者利邦控股有限公司(Trinity Ltd.)的利润将下降19%。

Any changes require cooperation between Hong Kong and Chinese authorities, as mainlanders gain visas to the city by applying with local government bureaus. While a 20% cut might prove too drastic, Beijing and Hong Kong could settle on still substantial cuts in a bid to reduce tensions.

由于大陆游客是通过向当地政府部门申请获得赴港通行证，因此，任何限制大陆游客数量的措施都需要香港与大陆有关部门的合作。虽然20%的削减幅度可能过大，但北京和香港方面仍有望就大幅削减游客数量达成一致，以缓解双方的紧张关系。

Shares in Hong Kong retailers have already taken a beating this year, but given all that could still go wrong, investors are better off shopping for bargains elsewhere.

今年以来，香港零售商的股票已受到冲击，但鉴于行情仍可能变糟，投资者们最好到其他地方寻找便宜货。

大陆游客减少赴港购物 香港零售商受挫